Russia-Ukraine War: Current Situation and Future Outlook
Russia-Ukraine War: Current Situation and Future Outlook
1. Ukraine's Population Crisis
Population Decline and Social Crisis
Before the war, Ukraine's population was about 41 million, but it has now decreased to about 29 million. Among them, 7 million people fled to Europe due to the war, and many are unlikely to return. About 5 million people reside in territories occupied by Russia, which may be permanently lost in the worst-case scenario.
The labor force in Ukraine is now estimated to be only about 10 million, and as the war continues, this poses a serious threat to the nation's survival.
Low Birth Rate and Aging Population
Ukraine's birth rate is very low, and the death rate is high. Even before the war, there was significant emigration to Europe, leading to a gradual population decline, which has been accelerated by the ongoing conflict.
2. Russia's Economic Situation
Economic Growth
Despite Western economic sanctions, Russia's economic growth rate is higher than that of the G7 countries. In 2023, Russia's economy particularly showed growth in manufacturing and construction. The unemployment rate is at a historic low of 2.6%, and real wages have risen significantly.
Military Industry Boom
Russia's military industry is booming due to the war economy, with significant increases in government spending. Initially, 300,000 troops were mobilized, but a volunteer contract system was introduced, with many soldiers receiving high salaries. This has led to an increase in income for ordinary citizens, particularly those in the manufacturing sector and military.
Domestic Industry Activation
Due to Western sanctions, foreign companies have withdrawn from Russia, leading to a push for domestic production. Russian entrepreneurs have filled the void left by brands like Starbucks and McDonald's, leading to an activation of the service and manufacturing industries.
3. Ukraine's Economic and Political Crisis
Economic Hardships
Ukraine's GDP decreased by 30% in 2022 due to the war, with poverty and unemployment rates rising sharply. 64% of Ukrainians believe the current economic situation is bad, and 13% say they do not have enough money to buy food.
Corruption Issues
Corruption remains a severe issue in Ukraine, even during the war. Several high-ranking officials have been dismissed or resigned due to corruption allegations, including military procurement scandals and issues related to military service evasion. These problems have greatly undermined public morale and trust in President Zelensky's government.
4. International Politics and the War's Future Course
International Political Disadvantages
Ukraine cannot continue the war without Western support, but with rising fatigue and shifting focus to other regions like the Middle East, support for Ukraine is dwindling. On the other hand, Russia, despite economic sanctions, is in a favorable international political position due to the economic downturn in Europe and the rise of far-right forces.
The End of the War and Future Outlook
The current situation in the Ukraine war is stalemated, with Russia occupying 18% of Ukrainian territory. Both sides are unlikely to achieve significant territorial gains or retake lost areas, making a ceasefire or peace negotiation inevitable. This scenario resembles the Korean War, where the war's outcome may lead to a divided situation similar to the Korean Peninsula.
Future Outlook: My Opinion
The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war is unsustainable for both sides. While Russia is experiencing economic growth, this is due to artificially created conditions that are unlikely to last long. Ukraine, on the other hand, is facing a worsening population and economic crisis, and the longer the war continues, the more dire its situation will become.
Therefore, if the war continues, both sides will eventually be forced to the negotiating table. At that point, it is crucial that the negotiations focus on the survival and reconstruction of Ukraine. Protecting the population should take precedence over holding onto territory, and international mediation will become increasingly necessary.
The international community should actively intervene to facilitate negotiations between Ukraine and Russia and prevent further unnecessary sacrifices. Even after the war ends, Ukraine will urgently need international support for its reconstruction and to address its population issues.